Current Trends
A growing increase of orphans due to AIDS
High rates of adult mortality due to HIV/AIDS have led to a heightened increase of the number of orphans. There are 12.3 million orphans due to AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa today compared to 550 thousand estimated in 1990. These figures will continue to increase over the next ten years UNICEF, 2003. The projected number of orphans indicates 18.4 million orphans due to AIDS by 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa, which represent 36.8% of the total number of orphans due to all causes (Table 3).
Estimates of the number of orphans due to AIDS are only available for sub-Saharan Africa; there are no estimates of the number of orphans due to AIDS for Asia and Latin America due to the lack of data on HIV prevalence in these regions.Conversely, estimates of orphans due to all causes are available UNICEF, 2003.
AIDS-orphan estimates were made available in high-prevalence countries because the impact of AIDS in low-prevalence countries is likely to be less substantial on the number of orphans at the national level.
Table 3 : Number of orphans due to all causes and orphans due to AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Caribbean between 1990 and 2010.
| Region | Year | All children 0-17 (thousands) | Total orphans as a percent of all children | Total number of orphans | Total number of orphans due to AIDS | Orphans due to AIDS as a percent of all orphans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-Saharan Africa |
1990 | 260 000 | 10.9% | 28 400 000 | 550 000 | 1.9% |
| 1995 | 290 000 | 11.2% | 32 500 000 | 3 000 000 | 9.2% | |
| 2000 | 330 000 | 11.9% | 39 200 000 | 8 500 000 | 21.7% | |
| 2003 | 350 000 | 12.3% | 43 400 000 | 12 300 000 | 28.3% | |
| 2010 | 400 000 | 12.5% | 50 000 000 | 18 400 000 | 36.8% | |
| Asia | 1990 | 1 000 000 | 8.8% | 96 600 000 | - | |
| 1995 | 1 100 000 | 8.6% | 94 600 000 | - | ||
| 2000 | 1 200 000 | 7.5% | 90 200 000 | |||
| 2003 | 1 200 000 | 7.3% | 87 600 000 | |||
| 2010 | 1 200 000 | 6.7% | 80 100 000 | |||
| Latin America and the Caribbean | 1990 | 190 000 | 7.1% | 13 400 000 | ||
| 1995 | 190 000 | 7.0% | 13 300 000 | |||
| 2000 | 200 000 | 6.4% | 12 800 000 | |||
| 2003 | 200 000 | 6.2% | 12 400 000 | |||
| 2010 | 200 000 | 6.0% | 12 000 000 | |||
| All Regions | 1990 | 1 600 000 | 8.7% | 138 400 000 | ||
| 1995 | 1 600 000 | 8.8% | 140 300 000 | |||
| 2000 | 1 700 000 | 8.4% | 142 200 000 | |||
| 2003 | 1 700 000 | 8.4% | 143 400 000 | |||
| 2010 | 1 800 000 | 7.9% | 142 100 000 |
Source: UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004
In sub-Saharan Africa, estimations indicate a high percentage of orphans due to AIDS compared to all orphans. By the end of 2003, 28% of all orphans are orphans due to AIDS. According to UNAIDS estimations, sub-Saharan Africa is home to 43 million orphans; that is 80% of all orphans worldwide UNICEF, 2003.
Without HIV/AIDS, the number of orphans in sub-Saharan Africa would decrease UNICEF, 2003. The HIV-prevalence rate is closely related to the percentage of orphans.
Countries who have recently been involved in armed conflict, such as Mozambique or Rwanda, also have a large percentage of orphaned children. Southern Africa is the hardest-hit region in Africa with high HIV prevalence and a high number of orphans in countries such as Swaziland, Botswana, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe UNICEF, 2003.
An increasing number of double orphans
AIDS is responsible for the increase of double orphans because there is a high probability that both parents are infected by HIV and that both will eventually die; thus, the higher the HIV/AIDS prevalence, the greater the increase of double orphans.
The countries with the highest HIV-prevalence levels and with large proportions of double orphans are located in eastern and southern Africa Grassly and Timaeus, 2003.
Among the 7.7 million double orphans in sub-Saharan Africa in 2003, there are 4.6 million children who are orphaned due to AIDS UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.
As the epidemic progresses in a country, the percentage of double orphans increases.
Table 4 : Increase in the number of double orphans between 1990 and 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa.
| 1990 | 2000 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 million | 6.4 million | 9.6 million |
Grassly and Timaeus, 2003, UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004
Increasing number of maternal orphans
On the whole, maternal orphans outnumber paternal orphans due to AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. There are 8.9 million maternal orphans compared to 7.3 million paternal orphans due to AIDS (Table 5).
This is the result of a continuing increase of the percentage of women among people infected with HIV these last years. Nowhere is the epidemic’s feminization more apparent than in sub-Saharan Africa where women account for 57% of all adults living with HIV and where 75% of young people infected are women and girls UNAIDS, 2004.
Several social factors are driving this trend. Young African women often have male partners much older than themselves—partners who are more likely than young men to be HIV-infected.
In countries where HIV prevalence is high and women’s social status is low, the risk of HIV infection through sexual violence is high. Gender relations make it difficult for women to negotiate condom use UNAIDS, 2004.
“In the absence of HIV/AIDS, children were more likely to become orphans because of a father’s death.”In 1990, there were 19.1 million paternal orphans compared to 12.8 maternal orphans due to all causes. In 2003, paternal orphans due to causes other than AIDS outnumber maternal orphans with 20.9 versus 14.1 million respectively UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.
Age of orphans
“The proportion of orphans increases with age: older orphans greatly outnumber younger orphans” Grassly and Timaeus, 2003. More than half of all orphans worldwide are age 12 or older UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.
Table 5 : Age distribution of orphans.
| 12-17 years | 6-11 years | 0-5 years |
|---|---|---|
| 55% | 35% | 12% |
Including data on children between ages 15 and 17 has made estimates of the total number of orphans in sub-Saharan Africa grow from 35 to 43 million at the end of 2003 UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.
Projections show that the type of orphanhood (paternal, maternal, and double) is correlated with the age of the child: double orphans are usually older.
New orphans
“One measure that more closely captures recent changes in adult mortality is the estimate of children who became orphans in the last year. This is where the current impact of HIV/AIDS is most clearly evident.” UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004
The last UNICEF report (2004) published that more than 15.4 million children were newly orphaned due to all causes throughout the world in 2003, among which 5.3 million were in sub-Saharan Africa, 8.7 million in Asia, and 1.4 million in Latin America and Caribbean UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.
In five countries in southern Africa (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland), 15% or more of all orphans became an orphan in 2003, mainly due to AIDS UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.
An under-estimation of the phenomenon
As previously shown, orphaning is not the only impact of HIV on children. Other children made vulnerable by HIV include those who have an ill parent, live in impoverished households that have taken in orphans, are discriminated against because of a family member’s HIV status, or who are HIV-infected themselves. HIV joins other factors such as extreme poverty, conflicts, and exploitation of the more vulnerable, mainly children.
The high numbers of orphans due to AIDS reveal a much larger crisis which face all children affected in some way by HIV/AIDS UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.^ Top
| Acknowledgments |