Regional comparisons

Sub-Saharan Africa

HIV/AIDS prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa is estimated at 5.8%. Sub-Saharan Africa includes 24 of the 25 countries with the world’s highest levels of HIV prevalence. In 2003, 12.3% of all children in sub-Saharan Africa were orphans. This is nearly twice Asia’s level (Table 3) UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.

Orphans are not equally distributed across countries. There are differences between sub-regions and countries within Africa. At the sub-regional level, the highest percentages of orphans are in central and southern Africa where countries have the highest HIV-prevalence levels and have been involved in armed conflict (Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe). In 11 of the 43 countries of the region, more than 15% of children are orphans and AIDS is the cause of parental death between 11% and 78% of the time (Table 6) UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.

Figure 1 displays these sub-regional disparities:

Figure1 : Orphans by region within sub-Saharan Africa by the end of 2003.

At a national level, the orphan phenomenon is more frequent in urban than in rural areas, mainly in countries with high levels of HIV prevalence such as Central African Republic, Malawi, Uganda, and Zambia Monasch and Boerma, 2004. This situation is the result of intense migratory movements from rural areas to cities in search for work opportunities or other types of support. In Central African Republic, there were 60% more orphans in urban than in rural areas in 2000 UNICEF, 2003.

Conversely, return migrations are also common. Parents infected by HIV/AIDS or another incurable disease can go back to their village of origin by their family; thus in Namibia, there were 40% more orphans in rural than in urban settings in 2000 UNICEF, 2003.

Asia

In Asia, the HIV-prevalence rate is 0.4%. Due to Asia’s large population, the total number of orphans is the largest worldwide. Although the number of orphans has dropped by 10% since 1990 and despite lower HIV prevalence rates, Asia has twice as many orphans due to all causes than in sub-Saharan Africa. If the epidemic expands, the number of children orphaned by AIDS could increase dramatically.
In 2003, there were 87.6 million orphans for all causes. According to projections, the number of orphans should drop to 80.1 million by 2010. Given the lack of information on HIV prevalence in this region, there are no available estimates of the number of orphans due to AIDS UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.

Latin America and Caribbean

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the HIV-prevalence rate is 0.7%. Since 1990, the overall number of orphans dropped by nearly 10%. In 2003, there were 12.4 million orphans UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004 versus 13.4 million in 1990 (Table 1). According to projections, the number of orphans should drop to 12 million by 2010. Given the lack of information on the prevalence of HIV in this region, there are no available estimates of the number of orphans due to AIDS UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.

“In the countries most affected by AIDS, however, there has been an increase in the proportion of children who are orphans. In Haiti, with an adult HIV prevalence rate of about 5.5%, over 15% of children are estimated to be orphans. This is more than double the regional average.” UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.

Table 6 : Number of orphans by type and cause in several sub-Sahara African countries, 2003

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