Abstract : Demographic projections based on HIV prevalence data suggest that at the end of 2002 an estimated 15 million children living in sub-Saharan Africa aged under 15 years old had lost their mother and/or father to AIDS. The African orphan crisis is revealed not only by demographic projections, but also by household surveys that ask questions about parental survival. In countries with severe HIV epidemics Demographic and Health Surveys have recorded an increase over the last decade in the fraction of children whose parents have died, and there is a significant correlation between orphanhood and adult HIV prevalence (p = 0.03).
Surveys and projections also reveal some of the characteristics of orphans that are relevant to policy. Both show on average twice as many children have a dead father than mother; both show an increasing prevalence of orphanhood with age, such that 10-14 year old children make up half of all orphans under the age of 15 years; and in countries with severe HIV epidemics, both show a significant rise in the fraction of orphans whose mother and father have died, due to the sexual transmission of HIV.
Projections can additionally be used to look more directly at the characteristics of AIDS orphans, evaluate orphanhood at ages older than 14 years and explore the impact of HIV/AIDS on child welfare other than through parental death. Including children aged 15-17 years old would increase estimates of the total number of orphans in sub-Saharan Africa at the end of 2002 from 35 to 47 million. Including 'vulnerable' children whose mother or father has AIDS would add 10% to the numbers of maternal and paternal AIDS orphans respectively. Vulnerability, however, is a nebulous concept and different aspects of a child's welfare may be put at risk by HIV/AIDS through a variety of mechanisms. To gain a better understanding of the impact of orphanhood on child welfare in different settings, in depth longitudinal studies of the orphaning process, from parental illness and death to the child's survival to adulthood (or death) are needed. (Author's modified)