Résumé : A study conducted by Mulder et al on the incidence of and mortality associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 infection in southwest Uganda suggests that HIV will have a substantial impact on future demographic patterns in African countries. Included in the study were almost 10,000 rural people, 46% of whom were children, from 15 villages in Uganda's Masaka District. The overall prevalence of HIV-1 infection was 4.8%; for adolescents and adults, the prevalence was 8.2%. The annual incidence of HIV-1 infection in adults was 1%. Over the 2-year study period, approximately equal numbers of villagers were becoming infected with HIV-1 as were dying from HIV-related causes, producing a stable prevalence. 52% of the deaths recorded during the study period involved HIV-2 infected individuals and the virus increased overall mortality by 79%. Adjusting for age the mortality risk was 21 times higher among HIV-infected persons than seronegatives; for HIV-infected adults 13-44 years of age, this risk was 59 times greater. Of concern was the finding that 44% of seropositive individuals were 13-24 years of age, the population group capable of driving the epidemic due to its high level of sexual activity. The ultimate demographic impact of HIV infection in Africa will depend on variables such as associated mortality rates in children and adults, the effect of maternal infection on the mortality of seronegative children, and the direct and indirect effects of adult HIV infection on fertility. Although it cannot yet be determined whether HIV will reduce population growth rates to a negative level in Africa, this information from Uganda on a rural population with a relatively low incidence of infection illustrates the enormous impact that HIV-1 is having on mortality.
Notes : English
Site web : http://db.jhuccp.org/popinform/basic.html